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Cartonboard packaging replacing plastic in European FMCG products – sustainable packaging market analysis

Assessing plastic replacement opportunities for a European packaging manufacturer

Background: Targeting the Opportunity for Plastics Substitution in Sustainable Packaging

Our client, a mid-sized European packaging firm, sought to capitalise on the accelerating shift among FMCG brands from plastic to cartonboard packaging. With evolving legislation and heightened consumer demand for sustainable solutions, the client needed a robust assessment of the market dynamics, demand forecasts, regional adoption rates, and sustainability priorities shaping the future of packaging.

Service: Corporate Strategy
Sector: Paper & Packaging

Cartonboard packaging replacing plastic in European FMCG products – sustainable packaging market analysis

Approach: In-Depth Market Sizing and Strategic Positioning for Cartonboard Adoption

To answer this, we delivered a comprehensive analysis focused on three core areas:

  • Market Trends & Demand Forecasts:
    • Analysed macro trends driving plastics substitution, including regulatory changes and FMCG sustainability commitments.
    • Developed demand forecasts for cartonboard adoption across key European regions.
  • Sustainability Priorities & Adoption Barriers:
    • Conducted over 20 expert interviews and reviewed leading market reports to understand the dynamic between virgin and recycled materials.
    • Identified barriers to adoption, such as supply chain volatility, de-stocking behaviours, and the impact of board imports.
  • Strategic Innovation & Messaging:
    • Advised on required product innovation and messaging to align with evolving sustainability priorities and maximise competitive advantage.

Our approach combined quantitative modelling with qualitative insights, ensuring a holistic view of the substitution opportunity and actionable recommendations for the client.

Outcome: Detailed Market Sizing Forecasts and Optimal Positioning for Plastics Replacement

We delivered a detailed market sizing, segmented by region and time horizon, quantifying the “size of the prize” for plastics substitution with cartonboard.

Key deliverables included:

  • Opportunity Assessment: Clear quantification of market potential and growth areas by region.
  • Strategic Positioning: Identification of the client’s current advantages and recommendations for innovation and messaging to capture future growth.

Armed with these insights, the client is now positioned to lead in the sustainable packaging transition, with a clear roadmap to maximise their share of the plastics substitution opportunity.

Why Choose Us for Market Sizing?

Our ability to combine qualitative and quantitative inputs into rigorous market sizing models enables us to deliver reliable and bespoke forecasts, not available from off-the-shelf resources. Coupled with our strategic advisory, we ensure clients receive evidence-based insights and strategic recommendations.

Get in touch with Sophie to see how White Space Strategy can support opportunity identification and assessment within Paper & Packaging markets




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