Background

A UK gas distributor was preparing to transition their natural gas network to hydrogen over the next 20 years. Their existing gas demand forecasting relied on temperature data and historical demand, and had not changed in ~20 years.

Given the smaller scale and supply constraints of early hydrogen networks, more accurate forecasting was essential.

The firm sought to explore various demand forecasting approaches from different industries and geographies to support the creation of a new forecasting system from the bottom up, which would incorporate the best of current thinking.

Approach

We conducted depth interviews with experts who build or use demand forecasting systems across multiple industries and geographies. Our interviews focused on the common elements, methodologies and best practices of demand forecasting systems.

Our approach included a workshop with the client’s team, involving natural gas control room experts and project specialists. In the workshop we presented findings from the interviews, explored a range of forecasting approaches, discussed key decisions for a new forecasting system, and proposed optimal options for the client’s context, based on internal requirements and external insights.

Outcome

We provided insights and actionable recommendations, which enabled the client to build a new forecasting system, enhance operational efficiency, and better prepare for future demand fluctuations.

This approach will enable the client to enhance forecasting accuracy, manage supply effectively, and future-proof their hydrogen network.