Developing a Demand Forecasting System for a UK Energy Firm

Background: Preparing for the Hydrogen Transition with Advanced Demand Forecasting

A major UK gas distributor was preparing to transition its natural gas network to hydrogen over the next 20 years. Their existing gas demand forecasting relied on temperature data and historical demand, and had not changed in approximately 20 years.

Given the smaller scale and supply constraints of early hydrogen networks, more accurate and adaptive forecasting was essential. The client sought to explore diverse demand forecasting approaches from different industries and geographies to support the creation of a new, best-in-class hydrogen forecasting system.

Approach: Benchmarking Global Best Practice Forecasting Methodologies

To answer this question, we conducted in-depth interviews with experts who build or use demand forecasting systems across multiple industries and geographies. Our research focused on identifying the common elements, methodologies, and best practices of leading demand forecasting systems.

Our approach included a collaborative workshop with the client’s team, involving natural gas control room experts and project specialists. In this session, we:

• Presented findings from expert interviews and global benchmarking.
• Explored a range of forecasting approaches.
• Discussed key decisions for designing a new hydrogen forecasting system.
• Proposed optimal options tailored to the client’s operational requirements and external best practice.

Outcome: Actionable Insights for a Future-Proof Hydrogen Network

We delivered clear insights and actionable recommendations, enabling the client to:

• Build a new hydrogen demand forecasting system based on international best practice.
• Enhance operational efficiency and forecasting accuracy.
• Effectively manage supply and prepare for future demand fluctuations.

Our approach has positioned the client to lead in hydrogen network management, ensuring their transition is underpinned by robust, evidence-based forecasting.